Global Spirits Consumption
Global Spirits Consumption Chart by Type of Alcohol
Overview: On Thursday, 1/17/2013, we attended the Vinexpo 2013 Press Conference. Launched in 1981 by the Bordeaux Chamber of Commerce, the Vinexpo has annually asserted itself as the leading international expo for wine and spirits. In addition to holding an annual expo, which this year will take place in Bordeaux from June 16-20, this year the company also commissioned a detailed study from the IWSR Consulting Group (International Wine and Spirit Research), containing in-depth analyses of world wine and spirits consumption, production, and trade trends, as well as a five-year forecast. This year?s study contained over 28 producer countries and 114 W&S Markets. Launched in 1971, the IWSR constitutes the widest, most accurate, and most detailed body of info on the global market of alcoholic beverages. What follows is a summary of the current trends and forecasts and an analysis of these trends. (All facts sourced from Vinexpo 2013 Press Dossier)
Highlights and Surprises of the 2016 W&S Market:
- China will surpass the United States as the third largest red wine consuming country.
- The United States will lead global consumption for wines costing over $10/Bottle.
- The United States will lead in global consumption of Tequila, surpassing Mexico!
Imported Spirits V.S. Domestic Spirits
American Spirits Consumption by Type of Alcohol
Domestic Trends:
Key Facts and Forecasts for the Domestic Market
- In 2011 the USA became the leading wine consuming nation in volume and in value in the?world, ahead of France and Italy.
- The USA is now the leading consumer market in the world for wines priced at more than $10 a bottle.
- The USA is the third largest wine importer worldwide.
- The USA is the fourth largest producer in the world (However if California decided the secede from the U.S. and become its own country, it would be the 4th largest producer being that it produces over 90% of U.S. wine ? though NY, WA, and OR are on the quick rise!)
- The USA is the 6th largest exporter of wine in the world in volume and value.
- In 2011, Americans consumed 4.5% more wine than in 2010, which was record growth in 1 year.
- The study forsees that growth in American wine consumption will continue between 2012 and 2016, attaining 12.16%! The United States should therefore expect to see its consumption increase by 40.52 million cases over that period, which translates to roughly 2 extra bottles for every American of drinking age.
- USA consumption of sparkling wines is growing twice as fast as that of still wines, and this should increase at a rate of 25.16% between 2012 and 2016, yet still 40% of sparkling wines consumed in the United States are imported and will likely remain in that ballpark.
American Wine Consumption
- The United States is the second largest consumer of whites in the world: between 2007 and 2011, Americans drank 10.44% more. This is largely attributed to the rising popularity of Sauvignon Blanc, Pinot Grigio, and Moscato.
- Whites account for 40.5% of still wines consumed in the United States.
- 27% (or roughly, one in four bottles) of wine consumed in the U.S. was imported in 2011. The study forecasts that the growth rate of imported consumption will rise from the current rate of 4.12% to 11.53% by 2016
- Americans are drinking more spirits: Consumption reached 190.87 9L cases in 2011, up 7.59% compared to 2007. The study sees a further increase of 8.73% by 2016.
- Vodka, Rum, and Bourbon lead the market: Vodka leads the pack, drinking over 65.25 million 9L cases in 2011 (a 23.2% increase from 2007). Vodka consumption is expected to increase by 15.29% between 2012 and 2016
- Rum consumption also increased by 5.22 over the period between 2007 and 2011 and is projected to grow at 7.53% between 2012 and 2016.
- Bourbon ranks third, surpassing liqueurs between 2007 and 2011. A further rise of 4.8% should be expected between 2012 and 2016.
- Tequila consumption grew 15.91% between 2007 and 2011 and will continue to rise at more or less the same rate (roughly 14.65%) between 2012 and 2016.
- While consumption of the above spirits increased, consumption of liqueurs, scotch, and gin decreased.
American Wine Consumption: Color
American Consumption: Domestic V.S. Imported
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American Wine Consumption: Price
American Wine Consumption: Still V.S. Sparkling
Global Trends:
Key Facts and Forecasts for the Global Market
- There is a faster growth rate in the consumption of sparkling wines than still wines: In 2011, the consumption of sparkling wines accounted for 7.7% of all of the wines consumed worldwide. Between 2007 and 2011, the consumption of sparkling wines grew by 4.12%, compared to the 2.72% growth in still wines. Due to expected rises in consumption in the top four sparkling wine markets worldwide (Germany, France, Russia, and the USA), global sparkling wine consumption is expected to rise at a rate of 8.52% between 2012 and 2016.
- China, the USA, Russia, and Australia drive growth in world consumption. In 2011 these markets drank 129 million more 9L cases than in 2007, an increase of 1.55 billion bottles!
- In 2010 China became the fifth largest wine consumer in the world
- In 2011 the USA became the leading consumer and Australia joined the top 10 relegating Romania out of the list.
- Europeans have started to drink less: for the first time in 15 years, Germany and England have reduced their consumption from 2007-2011 by a rate of 2.73% and 4.07% respectively. Similarly, Italy and France have reduced their consumption: down 7.13% in the first case and 2.51% in the second case. Spain?s consumption collapsed (down 19.67% from 2007-2012)
- The world still prefers red, accounting for 54.7% of still wine consumption. This is expected to grow by 9.1% by 2016 while white consumption should only increase by 2.75%. Surprisingly, the consumption of rose wine is expected to increase by 7.58%, reaching a total share of 9.2% of all wines consumed.
American Wine Destinations
- France leads the world in the value of its imports.
- Asia-Pacific drinks more spirits than any other region in the world. 61.5% of world consumption occurs here. This is the result of a 74.31% growth between 2007 and 2011. This is expected to rise at a slower rate of 13.63% by 2016.
- Baijiu, a Chinese spirit distilled from sorghum, wheat, or rice, alone accounts for more than one third of all the spirits consumed in the world and China is the leading spirits consuming nation.
- Vodka will remain the top consumed spirit, though it?s consumption growth rate will slow down slightly and only grow at a rate of 1.56% between 2012 and 2016.
- Rum and Brandy consumption (excluding Cognac and Armagnac) continues to increase in consumption growth rate.
- Asia alone accounts for 48.6% of revenue from spirits worldwide while consuming 61.5% of the total world volume.
Top 10 Consuming Countries
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Implications:
Top Suppliers of The American Wine Market
The good news isn?t just that our country is drinking more year after year, but that we are drinking better. Indeed, we now lead the world in consumption of wines costing $10 or more per bottle which means that more and more Americans are not just increasing the amount they drink, but increasing in how much they care about what they drink. In addition to the total growth we should expect to see by 2016, we should expect consumption of wines under $5 per bottle (Jug Wine) to decrease at a rate of 1.3% by 2016. This has huge implications for our wine market: slowly but surely we will see insipid jug wines disappear from shelves, as our country falls more and more in love with wines of bona fide nuance, flavor, and elegance.
While tequila seems to be on the quick rise in our country, gin is on the decline. This seems to hint at a likely and much anticipated revolution of cocktail trends: In the past decade speakeasies and cocktail bars have focused with great intensity on gin and bourbon, but America?s rising indulgence in tequila will likely change this trend and force upon us an era filled with new and distinctive tequila-based cocktails.
Top 10 Wine Exporting Countries
Unfortunately, there are some negative implications to this research. The fact that sparkling wine consumption is on the rise is, somehow paradoxically, truly great news yet also possibly devastating. On the one hand, it might easily call for the increased push of high-quality sparkling wine production from areas like New Zealand, California, and NY. Yet on the other hand, our dependence on sparkling wines that can only be produced in delimited geographical areas will no doubt spawn rising prices. Wines such as Champagne are already in demand and, recently, in an attempt to ameliorate the already exorbitant Champagne prices, the Champagne region extended its boundaries of production. In other words, the Champenois are, instead of focusing on the quality of production they are known for, focused on how to meet consumer demands. In doing so they have compromised the guarantee of quality inherent in Champagne by expanding its delimited geographical area to parcels less capable of producing ?Champagne-Quality? grapes. That is not to say great Champagne will no longer be produced, for Americans in a high enough tax bracket will surely still be able to get their hands on a Krug ?Clos du Mesnil? for a mere $1000 per bottle ? and of course there are still a slew of fantastic (and sometimes bargain) grower champagnes that will not be going anywhere. However, it?s the more moderately priced Champagne (the majority still fantastic however) that will suffer from the extension of the AOC boundaries as Americans will likely recognize the rising costs juxtaposed with a possible decrease in quality. It is very likely we will begin to look elsewhere for value in sparklers such as Cava (the most widely consumed sparkling wine), Prosecco, Franciacorta, Sekt, and domestic sparklers.
Besides for a possible crisis in Champagne it seems safe to say that for the most part, these trends imply a singular and positive message: We are drinking more wines and spirits. More important than that, we are focusing more on high quality wines ands spirits and decreasing our consumption of jug wines and jug spirits. In other words we are beginning to care about the beverages we consume, and are putting quality before quantity and cost. Lastly and perhaps most importantly, we are expanding the spectrum of wines and spirits we consume: consuming more local spirits, rose wines, sparkling wines, tequila, and bourbon than ever before. Today is the greatest era in history to be a wine/beer/spirits geek. Never before have we had such a multitude of options for craft breweries, craft distilleries, organic/biodynamic beverages, and famous wines from wine regions where our ancestors would?ve never thought it possible to make great wine from (such as Canada?s Okanagan Valley, New Mexico, Greece, China and Lebanon!) Yet as good as it is to appreciate the beverage world today, 2016 looks even far brighter. Look forward to it.
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